Wine-based RTDs or STFU, imho

Everybody more or less agrees that the American wine industry’s problem is that it’s not selling enough wine. Or, in the trade’s perennially put-upon formulation: people aren’t buying enough wine. Two sides, same coin, etc., but regardless, the top-line figures tell a tough story.

The latest, sorriest State of The Industry report from Silicon Valley Bank, published last week, estimated 2024 sales volume will wind up down 1-3% on 2023’s already-ass numbers once the dust settles, with wineries across the country seeing a weighted-average revenue decrease of 3.4%, and tasting-room visits still sliding. The forecast for 2025 ain’t pretty, either.

Why is this happening? What’s the matter with Kansas Cabernet? Rob McMillan, SVB executive vice-president and founding author of the two-and-a-half-decades-running report, spent 40 pages answering that question with the somber thoroughness befitting a sector-leading banker. To editorialize his major arguments:

• Boomers be “sunsetting”

• Anti-alcohol advocates be scheming

• Competition be stiffening

• Ozempic (et al.) be trending

• Winemakers be self-obsoleting

And so on, and so forth. Rather than debate the relative downward pressure brought to bear upon the industry by public-health wonks, semaglutides, or those dang Zoomers and their participation trophies, I think it’s worth focusing on one of McMillan’s few positive findings that throws this conversation about the US wine industry’s many ills into clarifying relief.

TL;DR: RTDs or STFU, imho. But please, allow me to elaborate.

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